Analyst

Michael Thoma

I write the research on TokenIntel: protocol value accrual, collateral and vault risk, and Bitcoin cycle structure. Previously at CryptoEQ and Reflexivity Research, with published work through The Block Pro.

LinkedIn Research library BTC cycle framework

How I work

Most crypto research explains why an asset will go up. I am more interested in whether the value a protocol creates actually reaches the token, and in what breaks when conditions change. That means starting from fees, revenue, collateral and redemption paths rather than from narrative, and being specific about which numbers are measured and which are assumed.

The clearest example is on this site. TokenIntel ran a multi-factor directional signal product across six assets. I backtested it against independent price data over 229 signal changes and found no predictive edge at any horizon I could test, then tested three separate rescue hypotheses, one of which looked strong in-sample and failed out of sample. The signals were retired and the full record stays published, including the measured hit rate. Killing your own flagship feature is not a fun result to write up, but publishing the measurement is the entire point of doing it.

Background

  • TokenIntel2026 to present
    Independent crypto research. Protocol value accrual, vault and collateral risk frameworks, and a measured Bitcoin cycle framework. 35 protocol pages, 81 concept explainers and 30 reports to date.
  • Reflexivity Research2023 to 2026
    Crypto research covering protocols, market structure and institutional-facing analysis.
  • Event Horizon Capital LLC2023 to present
    Limited advisory role contributing fundamental analysis to the Nebula Fund. Not responsible for trade execution or position sizing.
  • CryptoEQ2019 to 2023
    Crypto asset research and ratings, including long-form protocol and mining-economics coverage.

Selected published work

Interoperability landscape report
Commissioned by the Web3 Foundation, distributed via The Block Pro. Long-form assessment of cross-chain interoperability approaches and their trade-offs.
Stablecoin architecture research
Commissioned by the Solana Foundation. Structural comparison of stablecoin designs and their collateral and redemption mechanics.
Bitcoin yield for institutions
Commissioned research on institutional BTC yield strategies and the risk each approach actually carries.
Bitcoin mining economics
CryptoEQ CORE+ coverage of mining cost structures, hashprice sensitivity and operator economics.

Client and commissioned work is described at a level that respects the original engagements. Happy to discuss specifics directly.

Contact

The fastest way to reach me is LinkedIn. If you want to see how I think before that, the reports are the densest version, the concept library is the framework layer, and the cycle page is the current live work.