Crypto Trading Signals
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Signal Methodology & Performance
How the model works, what it measures, and what the backtest shows.
Each signal aggregates 11 weighted factors into a single score. When enough factors align bullish, the signal says buy. When they align bearish, it says sell. Neutral conditions produce a hold.
The model identifies which regime the market is in and adjusts factor thresholds accordingly. A factor that's bullish in expansion may be neutral in contraction.
Each regime shifts the scoring thresholds. For example, RSI 40 is neutral in expansion but oversold (bullish signal) in contraction. The regime overlay prevents the model from using static rules in a dynamic market.
Signals don't flip 100% instantly. Positions scale in and out over 5 days at 20% per day, reducing timing risk and mimicking how institutions manage large positions.
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This approach added 2-6 percentage points of alpha in backtesting versus instant execution.
January 2024 to present. 5-day gradual execution, production thresholds.
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Alpha | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | +102.3% | +70.0% | +32.3% | -32.2% vs -49.7% |
| ETH (BTC proxy) | +28.8% | +0.8% | +28.0% | -63.8% vs -63.8% |
Master Trading Signal Analysis
Understand the mechanics behind our signals and learn how to interpret market indicators with our free educational guides.
Trading Signals Explained
Complete guide to understanding crypto trading signals, indicators, and how to act on them.
Perpetual Futures & Funding
Learn how perpetual futures, funding rates, and open interest drive crypto price action.
Market Makers & Structure
Understand how crypto markets work, liquidity dynamics, and order flow analysis.