BTC Cycle Position - TokenIntel

Cycle position data is unavailable right now. Nothing is shown rather than an estimate.

Price vs 200-week average

--×

Spot -- against a 200-week average of --. Price is -- from its own four-year mean.

Percentile of the last 4 years

0 · washed out50100 · stretched

-- percentile. BTC has traded below its 200-week average in -- of all weeks since 2017.

What happened after BTC traded below its 200-week average

Measured

Forward returns are measured from the lowest week of each stretch below the line.

0.60×0.80×1.00×1.20×

200w average

Every cycle low since 2017 has landed inside a narrow band below the average.

Stretch below the average	Weeks	Lowest	Next 1 year	Next 2 years

Median 2-year return, weeks below 1.0×

-- weeks

Median 2-year return, any week

-- weeks

Read this before trusting the table. Almost every stretch below the line belongs to a single bear-to-bull transition in 2022 and 2023. The 2019 low stopped just above the average and never broke below it, so it contributes nothing here. This is closer to one observation measured many times than to several independent ones, and every forward return above is drawn from a period in which Bitcoin subsequently rose.

200w multiple

Price divided by its 200-week average

MVRV z-score

Expanding window, no look-ahead

MVRV ratio

Price vs aggregate cost basis

Realized volatility

Annualized, trailing 52 weeks

Cycle tops are shrinking

Pattern · n=2 intervals

Measured at each cycle's highest price, using the weekly high. Three tops is not enough to project a fourth.

Cycle price peak	Price	200w average	Multiple	Change

The trend is large, the rate is not steady. Each top has been a fraction of the last, but the fraction itself has moved substantially between cycles, so there is no reliable rate to extend. Note also that peak price and peak multiple are different events: in 2021 the multiple peaked eight months before the price did, and in the last cycle the gap was ten months. Anything quoting a single "cycle top" figure is choosing one of the two.

What this page does not tell you

Not provided

No price target. We do not publish where we think this cycle tops or bottoms. Extending the decay above lands across a range so wide that the low end would mean no meaningful top at all. A range that wide is not a forecast, so we do not print one.
No buy or sell call. Position is not desirability. A low reading has preceded both recoveries and further decline.
No allocation advice. We tested a model that converts this cycle read into an allocation percentage across 11.8 years. Its timing added nothing over simply holding a fixed allocation of the same size, so we do not publish one.
Bitcoin only. The 200-week relationship is a Bitcoin artifact. It does not transfer to other assets, and we make no cycle claim about them.

What the underlying cycle read has done well: it correctly sat low at all three cycle tops and high at both cycle bottoms since 2017. Five extremes is a small sample, and the framework has never been observed through a sustained uptrend.

If you do have a view, the ladder builder turns your own bottom and top into a schedule and stress tests it against outcomes you did not predict. Your anchors, not ours. Build your cycle ladder →

Method. The 200-week average and percentile are computed from weekly closes (Kraken XBTUSD, since 2013). The percentile ranks the current multiple within its own trailing four-year window. Cycle price peaks use the weekly high. MVRV comes from CoinMetrics CapMVRVCur; the z-score uses an expanding window so no future data enters a past reading. Realized volatility is the standard deviation of weekly log returns over the trailing 52 weeks, annualized. Every figure on this page is a measurement or a stated historical fact. Nothing here is a projection.